January 2023 Livestream!

Windsagio

@Microdynames said in January 2023 Livestream!:

ls despite their numbers sound like a very fickle lot that you would have to throw stuff at twice as hard just to retain in the same numbers like a Red Queen effe

This again is coming from a slightly different industry (but still fully online), but taken in mass fans generally are not fickle, but are incredibly predictable.

Some of the info @admin gave us makes a ton of sense in that realm, I can definitely feel the 'sexy art' thing, we use that shamelessly in games too at certain moments. Similarly the shojo/romcom thing. I'm kind of impressed there's any market for that in English speaking regions at all (and some of my favorite works on here are in that genre!)

Vocal superfans are very tricky to cater to, they're often substantially out of sync with the market as a whole.

piisfun

@Windsagio said in January 2023 Livestream!:

Vocal superfans are very tricky to cater to, they're often substantially out of sync with the market as a whole.

That sounds an awfully lot like movie critics vs. actual audience opinions...

Windsagio

@piisfun It's a little different, in that critics are supposed to be experts, but there's also a gap there.

What's good and What sells are not necessarily related (this is made worse because 'what's good' is super subjective).

I'd compare it really directly to the <insert fantasy series> megafans who get mad when a beloved character isn't presented truly enough to the source material. From a business perspective those people are gonna buy either way, even if they claim otherwise, so you don't worry about them. You make your product for everyone, not just the ones that are already sold.

In movies it's tricky too, because there's a lot of hype and a lot of perceived value. I've worked with a lot of former LucasArts people for instance, and the reality was that anything with the Star Wars IP will sell and will make big money, as long as you hit some basic levels of quality. Fans of Star Wars will buy it, and many (as with the movies) will convince themselves it's good because they knew it was good before they saw it. That rule doesn't directly apply to LN's because at least over here most people don't know and certainly don't have special loyalty to a series coming in, but it's def a thing to movies. Avatar 2 was going to make a ton of money whether it was good or not, and because of Avatar 1.

Windsagio

@Windsagio Maybe there is a bit of the above, everyone seems to have known that Seventh was by the "Side character in an otome game" guy, dunno if it actually drove any sales though (most of what I saw was "Man why does he hate sisters so bad?")

jpwong

It's always interesting to hear what the gulf is between what the community that discusses things thinks is popular vs what really sells.

So far everything discussed does tell me that I'm obviously not part of that group that buys all the trendy series.

I actually wanted to buy some series in print, but I just have no bookshelf room so I've been buying all my LNs digitally.

Microdynames

@Windsagio I was thinking more fickle in that anything, not just Japanese light novels, could scratch that same itch, causing lots of movement towards Chinese webnovels for example.

EDIT: And, if the livestream prediction is correct, potentially AI-written OELNs in the future.

Windsagio

@Microdynames Could be, but Japanese pop culture has a penetration that Chinese (or Korean) stuff doesn't.

A few of the other publishers have published some Korean or Chinese stuff, and I'd bet real money that sales are noticeably lower, just because people are so accustomed to the Japanese style and everyone now (almost) has grown up with Anime and Manga being a major force.

myskaros

@Windsagio said in January 2023 Livestream!:

A few of the other publishers have published some Korean or Chinese stuff, and I'd bet real money that sales are noticeably lower

Have you heard of danmei? That stuff is burning up the charts >.>

Lily Garden

@admin Thanks for sharing this fascinating information!

I am curious to hear if there is a large difference in sales among the top 10 highest earners, say between the 1st and the 5th top sellers whether there is a huge gap in the number of sales or if it's a small gap

(I am doing research into the English speaking light novel market as part of my graduate school studies, so I very interested in the minutiae, besides it's fascinating to get of better picture of the marketplace)

Microdynames

@myskaros I was under the impression danmei is a slightly different kettle of fish (market demographic)

Windsagio

@myskaros I haven't, I'll have to look :p

Travis Butler

@piisfun said in January 2023 Livestream!:

@Windsagio said in January 2023 Livestream!:

Vocal superfans are very tricky to cater to, they're often substantially out of sync with the market as a whole.

That sounds an awfully lot like movie critics vs. actual audience opinions...

Honestly, I think movie critics are often more in tune with actual audience opinions than superfans are.

Critics focus on storytelling technique and ’art’.

Superfans focus on fictional universes, continuity arguments, and fan service (in the broader sense).

Average audiences just want to be entertained.

HarmlessDave

@admin said in January 2023 Livestream!:

Classic series like full metal/slayers sell terribly, 100% of the time. Only print editions sell for those. Later volumes of classic series can sell <100 copies each digitally. So our ability to license classic series is tied to our ability to put out print editions (otherwise we're looking at 5-figure losses for longer series.)
"Classic" seems to apply even to series from like, 2015 or 2016.

It's too bad you aren't able to negotiate conditional licenses for these, then use crowdfunding like Right Stuf did for Dirty Pair, Aria English dub, etc.

There are a few I'd chip in way more than 699 coins just to find out what happens after the anime, and read what was cut from it.

5 figures isn't that high a bar for crowdfunding if you can attract enough minnows like me plus a few superfan whales.

HarmlessDave

@piisfun said in January 2023 Livestream!:

@Windsagio said in January 2023 Livestream!:

Vocal superfans are very tricky to cater to, they're often substantially out of sync with the market as a whole.

That sounds an awfully lot like movie critics vs. actual audience opinions...

Or foodies. They love exotic and unique flavor combinations like truffle-infused braised otter snouts while I'd rather have a $10 pub cheeseburger and onion rings.

Windsagio

@HarmlessDave Another subject that comes up (especially with people into genre fiction) is this weird inferiority complex. People sometimes need (apparently) to make the stuff out to be more than it is, because they're embarrassed by it.

That kind of talk doesn't even reflect peoples own actual likes so can be further distorting.

Brakes

@Travis-Butler

Perhaps for longer-running series where there's existing continuity, or for those movies which are from directors/have certain actors in with notable dedicated fanbases. But it can be a bit trickier to consider superfans for new series/single entries without those particular directors/actors (even if such movies are sparser at modern cinemas).

However, critics do have a few notable differences to "majority" fans (although these are all pretty similar points, more different angles on them):

Critics may have their own taste preferences
There are certain elements critics may look for in movies which audiences don't care about, or perhaps even opposite views between the groups
Background (so whether had education background, fan background, or such) and experience in reviewing (or even where reviewing - is this a site that has a strong reviewing base and thus may keep that up long-term, or is this a fan blog that may go critic or superfan depending on the poster)
Critics also presumably have spent a LOT of time watching movies (and a range of movies), which would further affect their own tastes

Naturally, this is more focused on critics as in traditional reviewers, who have some biases but still try to focus on certain elements of the movie even if it doesn't fit their tastes. Others...not so much.

myskaros

@Microdynames said in January 2023 Livestream!:

@myskaros I was under the impression danmei is a slightly different kettle of fish (market demographic)

I think you could agree that even between light novels and manga, the market is different, yes? Danmei may not overlap as much with certain areas of LN/manga, but much more in others.

In general, "Korean and Chinese stuff" is both too vague to know what is being referenced, and whatever is being referenced cannot be used in an apples-to-apples comparison anyway, so I just picked danmei as a Chinese fiction venture by a Japanese LN/manga company (Seven Seas) that is so profitable that it appears to be supplanting their LN/manga business.

kuali

@Windsagio said in January 2023 Livestream!:

@HarmlessDave Another subject that comes up (especially with people into genre fiction) is this weird inferiority complex. People sometimes need (apparently) to make the stuff out to be more than it is, because they're embarrassed by it.

No, no, no, you philistines just don't understand! This series about a drunken lesbian pervert making dirty jokes online has literary merit! I'm not just reading it because it makes me laugh - this is serious stuff!

Lily Garden

@kuali It's a deliberate analysis of the current environment of parasocial content creators and how friends from work can develop into a legitimate support network to relieve reliance on substances for stress relief and limit the possibility of burnout

😆 😂

Windsagio

@myskaros My argument is essentially that "Japanese" has brand value that "Korean" and "Chinese" don't yet.

I know plenty of people who will read manga but not manhua, or for that matter what will read Genre LNs but won't even look at LitRPG English language works (which seem to me to be a combination of popular LNs and Hickman/Weiss D&D novels, but I'm not an expert).

The content of the works don't matter so much as the brand awareness, just like the concept of sexier cover art selling better (which was mentioned authoritatively up above). "Japanese" often drives some sales on its own, and "Korean" or "Chinese" don't seem to be there yet (granted, I don't have a ton of access to the numbers, so this is speculative)