@bf3ubvf And as I've previously stated, "possible" is not a high enough bar. Until such time as new information arises that moves your "possible" to "probable," what I have suggested is concrete enough that any position you argue cannot contradict them without also very probably contradicting the narrative canon.
Err, demonstrating whether an analysis is wrong or not is pretty easily provable. It's as simple as literally waiting for the rest of the translations to come out and see what happens. Whatever rationale either of us have behind our analyses, the only one's opinion who matters is Kazuki-sensei. What she says goes by authorial fiat. For example, if she literally goes and says, "commoners in Yurgenschmidt cannot survive without nobles," it wouldn't matter how much virtual ink you spill about "possible" alternatives, those alternatives, even in aggregate, are automatically inadequate, and no prediction of what might happen in the future canon can hinge on any of them actually succeeding.
At this point I'm pretty sure you're not realizing this, but your argument about promotion of a differing mindset is sort of a net zero result in the Bookverse. Someone is always not on the top spot and striving to get up there. Who that someone is, and who that someone else who is in the top spot barely registers much of a difference. For your Klassenberg archducal candidate that was raised seeking the top spot, you have a Drewanchel archducal candidate that was raised in the top spot. The haves and have nots remain present in either scenario, as does the drive and innovation that comes from the resulting competition. A competition that is inherent. On the other hand, there is no inherent need for a particular duchy to be the contender versus the incumbent.
You-you think that Raublut only has Hildebrand to work with? Wow, you completely missed the allusion Kazuki-sensei gave us last volume. Ferdinand noted that Raublut was very possibly stationed at the palace of Adalgisa. Think about what that means. Ferdinand, by virtue of being a survivor of said palace, is of royal descent and meets the qualifications to be set on the zent path. Raublut's actions are very clearly not intended to help one of the extant royal family members we're aware of succeed in obtaining Grutrissheit and becoming a proper zent. The only question was who else could he possibly be fronting for. If Raublut really was stationed at the palace like Ferdinand suggests, that would mean he would have had access to potentially every other royal-descended child born in that palace. We know Ferdinand survived to leave. Who else could have survived that Raublut might have connections with?
On top of that, in purely practical terms even if such an alternate candidate obtained Grutrissheit the surviving greater duchies might not accept such a person as zent without a fight, so the only way for such a coup to succeed is if said greater duchies are sufficiently weakened beforehand that they are forced to accept. And said duchies are far, far from that point. So if Raublut really is plotting a replacement of the current royal family, a requisite step beforehand would be to try to cripple the three top greater duchies to something like Ahrensbach level. So, yes, Raublut at present probably constitutes the second biggest threat that we know of thus far, right after the wholesale collapse of the country from lack of a Grutrissheit-possessing zent.
